A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
